ForecastLast updated Oct 16, 10:30 AM
Below is a list of all 36 governor forecasts Decision Desk HQ is tracking in the 2026 election. States are listed in order of competitiveness, with the closest races at the top.
| State | DemocraticRepublican | Rating |
|---|---|---|
| Alaska | 53% | Toss Up |
| Nevada | 53% | Toss Up |
| Georgia | 55% | Toss Up |
| Ohio | 60% | Toss Up |
| New Hampshire | 66% | Lean R |
| Florida | 68% | Lean R |
| Kansas | 69% | Lean R |
| Texas | 71% | Lean R |
| Arizona | 72% | Lean D |
| Wisconsin | 72% | Lean D |
| Iowa | 74% | Lean D |
| South Carolina | 74% | Lean R |
| Michigan | 75% | Likely D |
| Maine | 84% | Likely D |
| Nebraska | 84% | Likely R |
| Oregon | 84% | Likely D |
| New Mexico | 85% | Likely D |
| Connecticut | 91% | Likely D |
| Minnesota | 91% | Likely D |
| New York | 92% | Likely D |
| Colorado | 93% | Likely D |
| Tennessee | 93% | Likely R |
| Alabama | 94% | Likely R |
| Illinois | 94% | Likely D |
| Vermont | 94% | Likely R |
| Pennsylvania | 95% | Safe D |
| California | 96% | Safe D |
| Rhode Island | 96% | Safe D |
| Oklahoma | 97% | Safe R |
| South Dakota | 97% | Safe R |
| Arkansas | 98% | Safe R |
| Hawaii | 99% | Safe D |
| Massachusetts | 99% | Safe D |
| Idaho | >99% | Safe R |
| Maryland | >99% | Safe D |
| Wyoming | >99% | Safe R |
