Forecasted Win Probability
Brad Little*
Terri Pickens
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 97% fundamentals and 3% polls. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Brad Little | 37.30% |
| Terri Pickens | 27.20% |
| Other Option | 19.90% |
| John Stegner | 12.80% |
| Paul Sand | 2.80% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Brad Little | 47.00% |
| John Stegner | 32.00% |
| Other Option | 21.00% |
