Forecasted Win Probability
Josh Shapiro*
Stacy Garrity
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 32% fundamentals, 49% polls, and 19% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
If the election for Pennsylvania Governor were being held today, who would voters choose?
Candidate | Average | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|
 | – | ||
 | – | ||
| Shapiro | |||
 | |||
