Forecasted Win Probability

Ned Lamont*

Ryan Fazio
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 82% fundamentals and 18% polls. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Ned Lamont | 55.00% |
| Ryan Fazio | 38.00% |
| Other Option | 7.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Ned Lamont | 48.00% |
| Ryan Fazio | 41.00% |
| Other Option | 11.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Ned Lamont | 55.00% |
| Ryan Fazio | 38.00% |
| Other Option | 7.00% |