October 2026
Nebraska tests if an independent can win in a deep-red state
One feature of the 2026 landscape is the presence of high-profile independent candidates mounting U.S. Senate bids. Of those contenders, the most prominent is Dan Osborn, who is challenging Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts in Nebraska. Ricketts remains favored to win, but the polls are close and outside Republican groups have felt the need to pour in millions more to protect the seat.
Pingree holds solid lead in Maine's gubernatorial contest
Gov. Janet Mills is term-limited, but Democrats look positioned to retain Maine's governorship. In Decision Desk HQ's new polling average for the race, Democrat Hannah Pingree leads Republican Bobby Charles by more than 10 percentage points. Pingree, a former state House speaker, has around a 6 in 7 chance of winning according to our governor forecast.
Ayotte favored to win a second term in New Hampshire
First elected in 2024, Republican Gov. Kelly Ayotte is seeking a second two-year term in New Hampshire this November. In DDHQ's new polling average of the Granite State race, she leads Democrat Cinde Warmington by close to 10 percentage points. With Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas leading in the U.S. Senate contest, New Hampshire might split its ticket this year.
Polls show very close race for Nebraska Senate
Decision Desk HQ's new polling average for Nebraska's Senate race finds Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts narrowly leading independent Dan Osborn. The Democratic nominee withdrew to support Osborn, making it a mostly head-to-head contest. In 2024, Osborn lost by about 7 percentage points in the race for Nebraska's other Senate seat.
The paths to a Senate majority
Decision Desk HQ's latest looks at what our forecast says about the most likely paths to a Senate majority. As the environment has worsened for Republicans, the playing field has expanded to include redder states like Kansas and South Carolina. However, winning most of the core six battlegrounds — Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, Texas — remains the foremost way to Senate control.
New Kansas Senate polling average shows a tight race
Democrat Adam Hamilton holds a nominal lead over Republican Sen. Roger Marshall in our new Kansas polling average. While Marshall remains favored in DDHQ's forecast, the race is now only "Lean R" in terms of each party's win probability. Democrats have not won a Senate race in Kansas since 1932, the longest victory drought for any major party in any of the 50 states.
Republicans favored to hold on in Florida's Senate race
Democrats are running close in a number of red-leaning Senate seats, but that's not true in Florida. There, appointed Republican Sen. Ashley Moody holds a lead in the mid-single digits over Democratic state Rep. Angie Nixon. As attorney general before her appointment, Moody was typically the strongest performer on the GOP ticket, and Nixon's DSA alignment may be a poor fit for Florida.
