November 2026
Alaska
Florida
Kansas
Maine
Michigan
Democratic wave, Republican wipeout
In the Senate, Democrats flipped at least seven GOP-held Senate seats, including five Trump +10 or higher states. Two very close races in Alaska and Mississippi remain unprojected, so Democrats will control 54 to 56 Senate seats. Decision Desk HQ projects that Democrats have won 251 seats, and our current outlook is that Democrats will have north of 260 once all is said and done.
An hour-by-hour guide to Election Night
Election Night in America spans six time zones, 10 different poll closing times, and a gap of seven hours between the first poll closings and the last. With polls set to close in just a few hours, let’s take a journey through Election Night’s poll closings, calling out some key races and places to watch once we start to get results.
Michigan Senate race convulsed as Haley Stevens endorses Mike Rogers
Democratic Rep. Haley Stevens endorsed Republican Mike Rogers in Michigan's Senate race versus Democrat Abdul El-Sayed, who narrowly defeated Stevens in the Democratic primary for Senate. Following the primary, Stevens expressed support for El-Sayed. But Stevens has broken with El-Sayed because of disagreements over his views and those of his supporters toward Israel. This development has convulsed what is already a very close Senate race in which El-Sayed holds a lead in the low single digits.
Kansas's Senate race joins the toss-up category
1932 was the last time a Democrat won a Senate race in Kansas. But pastor Adam Hamilton might break that drought. In DDHQ's polling average, he narrowly leads Republican Sen. Roger Marshall. In our forecast, the race is now a Toss-up, with neither candidate having more than a 60% chance of winning. Fundamentals say Kansas should stay red, but it really seems to be in play.
South Carolina’s unexpectedly close Senate race
In the final days of the 2026 campaign, President Donald Trump is planning a second visit to South Carolina. That suggests that South Carolina’s U.S. Senate race is competitive. Our latest polling and forecast memo looks at that race — featuring appointed Republican Sen. Darline Graham and Democrat Annie Andrews — as well updates on all major races.
Key House races to watch early on Election Night
Eight states with competitive House races will have mostly or entirely finished voting by 7:30 p.m. ET: Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, North Carolina, Ohio, South Carolina, and Virginia. Early results will provide an early signal about the trajectory of midterm elections in the House. DDHQ's latest newsletter looks at the key House races to watch early on Election Night.
Klobuchar leads race for Minnesota governor
Democratic Sen. Amy Klobuchar appears likely to become Minnesota's next governor. She leads state House Speaker Lisa Demuth, the GOP nominee, by a little under 10 percentage points in DDHQ's polling average. The 2026 cycle saw a record number of senators (four) run for governor. Klobuchar is one of three favored to win next week, along with Tommy Tuberville (Alabama) and Marsha Blackburn (Tennessee). Michael Bennet of Colorado lost his primary.
