October 2026
Klobuchar leads race for Minnesota governor
Democratic Sen. Amy Klobuchar appears likely to become Minnesota's next governor. She leads state House Speaker Lisa Demuth, the GOP nominee, by a little under 10 percentage points in DDHQ's polling average. The 2026 cycle saw a record number of senators (four) run for governor. Klobuchar is one of three favored to win next week, along with Tommy Tuberville (Alabama) and Marsha Blackburn (Tennessee). Michael Bennet of Colorado lost his primary.
Oregon GOP aims to break four-decade losing streak for governor
Republicans last won Oregon's governorship in 1982, when Gov. Victor Atiyeh easily won reelection. Ever since, Democrats have won 10 straight gubernatorial contests. But Republican state Sen. Christine Drazan is trying to break that streak. In a rematch of the state's close 2022 contest, Drazan is running neck and neck with Democratic Gov. Tina Kotek in DDHQ's polling average.
Which states will split tickets for Senate and governor?
Most states that have both a Senate and gubernatorial race will back the same party for both offices. But seven states in particular — Alaska, Georgia, Iowa, Maine, New Hampshire, Ohio, and Texas — are most likely to produce split-ticket outcomes. How close these races run together will play a pivotal role in deciding control of the Senate and whether some states elect a governor from their minority party for the first time in many years.
Nebraska tests if an independent can win in a deep-red state
One feature of the 2026 landscape is the presence of high-profile independent candidates mounting U.S. Senate bids. Of those contenders, the most prominent is Dan Osborn, who is challenging Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts in Nebraska. Ricketts remains favored to win, but the polls are close and outside Republican groups have felt the need to pour in millions more to protect the seat.
Pingree holds solid lead in Maine's gubernatorial contest
Gov. Janet Mills is term-limited, but Democrats look positioned to retain Maine's governorship. In Decision Desk HQ's new polling average for the race, Democrat Hannah Pingree leads Republican Bobby Charles by more than 10 percentage points. Pingree, a former state House speaker, has around a 6 in 7 chance of winning according to our governor forecast.
Ayotte favored to win a second term in New Hampshire
First elected in 2024, Republican Gov. Kelly Ayotte is seeking a second two-year term in New Hampshire this November. In DDHQ's new polling average of the Granite State race, she leads Democrat Cinde Warmington by close to 10 percentage points. With Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas leading in the U.S. Senate contest, New Hampshire might split its ticket this year.
Polls show very close race for Nebraska Senate
Decision Desk HQ's new polling average for Nebraska's Senate race finds Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts narrowly leading independent Dan Osborn. The Democratic nominee withdrew to support Osborn, making it a mostly head-to-head contest. In 2024, Osborn lost by about 7 percentage points in the race for Nebraska's other Senate seat.
