Forecasted Win Probability
Alan Wilson
Jermaine Johnson
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 94% fundamentals and 6% polls. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Alan Wilson | 45.17% |
| Jermaine Johnson | 35.03% |
| Other Option | 15.84% |
| Michael Addison | 2.85% |
| Walid Hakim | 1.11% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Alan Wilson | 48.00% |
| Jermaine Johnson | 41.00% |
| Other Option | 11.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Alan Wilson | 45.00% |
| Jermaine Johnson | 37.00% |
| Other Option | 17.00% |
