Forecasted Win Probability
Tina Kotek*
Christine Drazan
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 79% fundamentals, 8% polls, and 13% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Tina Kotek | 46.00% |
| Christine Drazan | 42.00% |
| Brett Smith | 6.00% |
| Other Option | 6.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Tina Kotek | 46.00% |
| Christine Drazan | 44.00% |
| Other Option | 7.00% |
| Brett Smith | 3.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Christine Drazan | 46.00% |
| Tina Kotek | 44.00% |
| Other Option | 8.00% |
| Brett Smith | 3.00% |
