Forecasted Win Probability

Larry Rhoden*

Dan Ahlers
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 97% fundamentals and 3% polls. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Larry Rhoden | 48.00% |
| Dan Ahlers | 38.00% |
| Other Option | 14.00% |