Forecasted Win Probability
Phil Scott*
Amanda Janoo
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 69% fundamentals, 15% polls, and 16% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Phil Scott | 43.00% |
| Amanda Janoo | 41.00% |
| Other Option | 16.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Amanda Janoo | 49.00% |
| Phil Scott | 43.00% |
| Other Option | 6.00% |
| Brian Judd | 2.00% |
| June Goodband | 0.00% |
| Dean Roy | 0.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Phil Scott | 43.73% |
| Amanda Janoo | 34.43% |
| Other Option | 18.41% |
| Brian Judd | 1.92% |
| Dean Roy | 1.05% |
| June Goodband | 0.47% |
