Forecasted Win Probability
Kathy Hochul*
Bruce Blakeman
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 30% fundamentals, 45% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
If the election for New York Governor were being held today, who would voters choose?
Candidate | Average | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|
 | – | ||
 | – | ||
| Hochul | |||
 | |||
