Forecasted Win Probability
Darline Graham*
Annie Andrews
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 55% fundamentals, 20% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Darline Graham | 49.00% |
| Annie Andrews | 45.00% |
| Other Option | 6.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Darline Graham | 45.70% |
| Annie Andrews | 44.80% |
| Other Option | 4.30% |
| Mark Hackett | 3.10% |
| Kasie Whitener | 2.10% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Darline Graham | 43.40% |
| Annie Andrews | 42.30% |
| Other Option | 14.40% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Darline Graham | $346,783 | $95,351 | $2,639,122 | $45,576 | PRE-RUN-OFF | 8/5/2026 |
 Annie Andrews | $10,804,041 | $6,684,746 | $19,508 | $140,756 | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
