Forecasted Win Probability
Mary Peltola
Dan Sullivan*
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 32% fundamentals, 43% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
If the election for Alaska US Senate were held today, who would voters choose?
Candidate | Average | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|
 | |||
 | |||
| Peltola | |||
 | |||
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mary Peltola | $32,623,722 | $29,463,904 | $331,494 | $3,035,229 | OCTOBER QUARTERLY | 9/30/2026 |
| Dan Sullivan | $13,760,055 | $9,388,081 | $1,315,252 | $2,211,307 | OCTOBER QUARTERLY | 9/30/2026 |
