Forecasted Win Probability
Cindy Hyde-Smith*
Scott Colom
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 61% fundamentals, 14% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Cindy Hyde-Smith | 52.00% |
| Scott Colom | 48.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Cindy Hyde-Smith | 44.00% |
| Scott Colom | 38.00% |
| Other Option | 11.00% |
| Ty Pinkins | 7.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Cindy Hyde-Smith | 39.00% |
| Scott Colom | 36.00% |
| Other Option | 23.00% |
| Ty Pinkins | 3.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Cindy Hyde-Smith | $6,145,797 | $3,882,055 | $133,948 | $1,509,671 | OCTOBER QUARTERLY | 9/30/2026 |
 Scott Colom | $2,384,921 | $1,537,875 | $761,276 | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
