Forecasted Win Probability
John McGuire III*
Tom Perriello
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 70% fundamentals, 5% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| John McGuire III | 51.00% |
| Tom Perriello | 45.00% |
| Other Option | 4.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| John McGuire III | 46.00% |
| Tom Perriello | 45.00% |
| Cooke Harvey | 6.00% |
| Other Option | 3.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| John McGuire III | 47.00% |
| Tom Perriello | 44.00% |
| Other Option | 9.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tom Perriello | $2,140,402 | $629,110 | $453 | - | PRE-PRIMARY | 7/15/2026 |
 John McGuire III | $1,740,534 | $1,243,407 | - | - | PRE-PRIMARY | 7/15/2026 |
