Forecasted Win Probability
Becca Balint*
Gerald Malloy
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 75% fundamentals and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Becca Balint | 66.00% |
| Gerald Malloy | 30.00% |
| Other Option | 3.00% |
| Suzanne Seymour | 1.00% |
| Phoenix Altair | 0.00% |
| Adam Ortiz | 0.00% |
| Ryan Walton | 0.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Becca Balint | 46.92% |
| Gerald Malloy | 30.25% |
| Other Option | 18.93% |
| Suzanne Seymour | 1.90% |
| Adam Ortiz | 1.33% |
| Ryan Walton | 0.51% |
| Phoenix Altair | 0.16% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Becca Balint | 63.00% |
| Gerald Malloy | 25.00% |
| Other Option | 10.00% |
| Adam Ortiz | 2.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Becca Balint | $956,339 | $475,768 | $10 | - | PRE-PRIMARY | 7/22/2026 |
 Gerald Malloy | $58,280 | $38,573 | - | - | PRE-PRIMARY | 7/22/2026 |
