Forecasted Win Probability
Charlie Hatcher
Chaz Molder
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 75% fundamentals and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Charlie Hatcher | 46.00% |
| Chaz Molder | 41.00% |
| Other Option | 11.00% |
| Micheal O'Leary | 1.00% |
| James Johnson | 1.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Charlie Hatcher | 48.00% |
| Chaz Molder | 40.00% |
| Other Option | 11.00% |
| James Johnson | 1.00% |
| Micheal O'Leary | 0.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Andy Ogles | 47.00% |
| Chaz Molder | 41.00% |
| Other Option | 12.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Chaz Molder | $2,599,775 | $1,117,579 | $33,707 | - | PRE-PRIMARY | 7/17/2026 |
 Charlie Hatcher | $719,503 | $614,682 | - | $273,014 | PRE-PRIMARY | 7/17/2026 |
