Forecasted Win Probability
Jack Reed*
Raymond McKay
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 70% fundamentals, 5% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Jack Reed | 59.13% |
| Raymond McKay | 25.44% |
| Other Option | 8.56% |
| Michael Bahry | 6.87% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Jack Reed | 51.00% |
| Raymond McKay | 31.00% |
| Other Option | 15.00% |
| Michael Bahry | 4.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Jack Reed | 52.00% |
| Raymond McKay | 35.00% |
| Other Option | 13.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jack Reed | $4,736,798 | $3,748,437 | $19 | - | OCTOBER QUARTERLY | 9/30/2026 |
 Raymond McKay | $350,144 | $343,396 | - | - | OCTOBER QUARTERLY | 9/30/2026 |
