Forecasted Win Probability
Ben Ray Lujan*
Larry Marker
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 68% fundamentals, 7% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Ben Ray Lujan | 53.00% |
| Larry Marker | 37.00% |
| Other Option | 10.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Ben Ray Lujan | 54.00% |
| Larry Marker | 36.00% |
| Other Option | 10.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Ben Ray Lujan | 53.00% |
| Larry Marker | 38.00% |
| Other Option | 9.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Marker | $92,011 | $81,050 | - | - | OCTOBER QUARTERLY | 9/30/2026 |
 Ben Ray Lujan | $8,277,478 | $3,960,048 | -$2,171 | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
