Forecasted Win Probability
David Flippo
Teresa Benitez-Thompson
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 73% fundamentals, 2% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Teresa Benitez-Thompson | 38.00% |
| David Flippo | 37.00% |
| Lynn Chapman | 14.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| David Flippo | 45.00% |
| Teresa Benitez-Thompson | 42.00% |
| Other Option | 7.00% |
| Lynn Chapman | 7.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Teresa Benitez-Thompson | 48.00% |
| David Flippo | 46.00% |
| Other Option | 6.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Teresa Benitez-Thompson | $257,087 | $116,479 | $10 | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
 David Flippo | $2,275,392 | $2,172,225 | $663,451 | $219,266 | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
