Forecasted Win Probability
Julia Letlow
Jamie Davis
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 70% fundamentals, 5% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Julia Letlow | 48.00% |
| Jamie Davis | 44.00% |
| Other Option | 8.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Julia Letlow | 41.00% |
| Jamie Davis | 37.00% |
| Other Option | 22.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jamie Davis | $1,983,548 | $1,504,444 | - | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
 Julia Letlow | $6,210,122 | $4,783,049 | $11,266,466 | $10,863,072 | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
