Forecasted Win Probability
John Hickenlooper*
Mark Baisley
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 73% fundamentals, 2% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Mark Baisley | 50.00% |
| John Hickenlooper | 45.00% |
| Other Option | 5.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 John Hickenlooper | $11,491,919 | $10,797,306 | $514,373 | - | OCTOBER QUARTERLY | 9/30/2026 |
 Mark Baisley | $110,001 | $83,721 | - | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
