Forecasted Win Probability
Glenn Grothman*
Brad Smith
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 73% fundamentals, 2% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Glenn Grothman | 55.00% |
| Michael Thurow | 45.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Brad Smith | $295,060 | $150,492 | $19 | - | OCTOBER QUARTERLY | 9/30/2026 |
| Glenn S. Grothman | $929,020 | $621,774 | - | - | PRE-PRIMARY | 7/22/2026 |
 Glenn Grothman | $865,241 | $584,128 | - | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
