Forecasted Win Probability
Rebecca Cooke
Derrick Van Orden*
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 66% fundamentals, 9% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Rebecca Cooke | 50.00% |
| Derrick Van Orden | 46.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Rebecca Cooke | 50.00% |
| Derrick Van Orden | 46.00% |
| Other Option | 3.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Rebecca Cooke | 49.00% |
| Derrick Van Orden | 48.00% |
| Other Option | 3.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Derrick Van Orden | $7,526,052 | $3,365,829 | $173,880 | $77,026 | PRE-PRIMARY | 7/22/2026 |
 Rebecca Cooke | $8,601,146 | $6,784,680 | $13,429 | - | PRE-PRIMARY | 7/22/2026 |
