Forecasted Win Probability
Bryan Steil*
Mitchell Berman
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 68% fundamentals, 7% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Mitchell Berman | 48.00% |
| Bryan Steil | 47.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Bryan Steil | 48.00% |
| Mitchell Berman | 48.00% |
| Other Option | 5.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Bryan Steil | 49.00% |
| Mitchell Berman | 48.00% |
| Other Option | 4.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Bryan Steil | $5,467,777 | $1,359,849 | - | - | PRE-PRIMARY | 7/22/2026 |
 Mitchell Berman | $712,984 | $561,340 | $1,271 | - | PRE-PRIMARY | 7/22/2026 |
