Forecasted Win Probability
ForecastLast updated Oct 15, 2:25 PM
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez*
John Braun
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 70% fundamentals, 5% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| John Braun | 46.00% |
| Marie Gluesenkamp Perez | 44.00% |
| Other Option | 11.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| John Braun | 43.00% |
| Marie Gluesenkamp Perez | 42.00% |
| Other Option | 16.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Marie Gluesenkamp Perez | $6,292,683 | $4,254,323 | $14,831 | - | PRE-PRIMARY | 7/15/2026 |
 John Braun | $1,992,647 | $929,019 | $20,000 | $110,000 | PRE-PRIMARY | 7/15/2026 |
