Forecasted Win Probability
Mark Warner*
Bert Mizusawa
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 75% fundamentals and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Mark Warner | 50.30% |
| Bert Mizusawa | 32.80% |
| Other Option | 13.70% |
| Mark Moran | 3.20% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Mark Warner | 45.00% |
| Glenn Youngkin | 38.00% |
| Other Option | 17.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Mark Warner | $27,174,897 | $20,030,248 | $150,089 | - | OCTOBER QUARTERLY | 9/30/2026 |
 Bert Mizusawa | $990,534 | $762,671 | - | - | OCTOBER QUARTERLY | 9/30/2026 |
