Forecasted Win Probability
Don Beyer*
Tony Sabio
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 75% fundamentals and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
If the election for Congress were being held today, who would Americans vote for?
Candidate | Average | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|
Democrat | |||
Republican | |||
| Democrat | |||
 | |||
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Don Beyer | $2,125,761 | $1,843,890 | - | - | PRE-PRIMARY | 7/15/2026 |
 Tony Sabio | $21,917 | $4,014 | - | - | PRE-PRIMARY | 7/15/2026 |
| Sabio Tony | $10,040 | $3,791 | - | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
