Forecasted Win Probability
Elaine Luria
Jen Kiggans*
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 70% fundamentals, 5% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Elaine Luria | 46.00% |
| Jen Kiggans | 43.00% |
| Other Option | 12.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Elaine Luria | 47.00% |
| Jen Kiggans | 47.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Elaine Luria | $4,659,795 | $1,077,072 | $18,052 | - | PRE-PRIMARY | 7/15/2026 |
 Jen Kiggans | $5,954,338 | $2,608,075 | $110,978 | $1,765 | PRE-PRIMARY | 7/15/2026 |
