Rob Wittman*
Shannon Taylor
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 64% fundamentals, 11% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Shannon Taylor | 48.00% |
| Rob Wittman | 47.00% |
| Other Option | 5.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Shannon Taylor | 47.00% |
| Rob Wittman | 46.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Shannon Taylor | 50.00% |
| Rob Wittman | 46.00% |
| Other Option | 4.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Shannon Taylor | $4,607,379 | $4,008,645 | $421,959 | - | PRE-GENERAL | 10/14/2026 |
 Rob Wittman | $5,432,689 | $6,011,223 | - | $2,551,720 | PRE-GENERAL | 10/14/2026 |
| Mr. Robert J. Wittman | $4,016,190 | $1,122,239 | - | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
