Forecasted Win Probability
Rob Wittman*
Shannon Taylor
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 68% fundamentals, 7% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Shannon Taylor | 50.00% |
| Rob Wittman | 46.00% |
| Other Option | 4.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Rob Wittman | 47.00% |
| Shannon Taylor | 46.00% |
| Other Option | 7.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Rob Wittman | 46.00% |
| Shannon Taylor | 42.00% |
| Other | 13.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Shannon Taylor | $2,140,980 | $1,136,753 | $51,770 | - | PRE-PRIMARY | 7/15/2026 |
 Rob Wittman | $4,053,142 | $1,136,232 | - | $828,238 | PRE-PRIMARY | 7/15/2026 |
| Mr. Robert J. Wittman | $4,016,190 | $1,122,239 | - | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
