Forecasted Win Probability
Mike Kennedy*
Johny Larsen
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 75% fundamentals and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Mike Kennedy | 41.70% |
| Jonny Larsen | 32.90% |
| Other Option | 14.40% |
| Steven Burt | 5.70% |
| Taylor Wright | 5.30% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Mike Kennedy | $971,393 | $710,038 | - | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| Jonathan Larsen | $53,579 | $52,450 | - | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
