Forecasted Win Probability
Blake Moore*
Peter Crosby
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 70% fundamentals, 5% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Peter Crosby | 34.86% |
| Other Option | 33.19% |
| Blake Moore | 31.96% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Other Option | 36.88% |
| Blake Moore | 32.41% |
| Peter Crosby | 30.71% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Blake Moore | 39.00% |
| Peter Crosby | 34.00% |
| Other Option | 13.20% |
| Daniel Cottam | 4.90% |
| Robert Moesinger | 4.90% |
| Carlton E. Bowen | 4.10% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Peter Crosby | $138,382 | $84,385 | - | - | OCTOBER QUARTERLY | 9/30/2026 |
 Blake Moore | $2,536,636 | $2,183,697 | $530,474 | $485,213 | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
