Forecasted Win Probability
Ben McAdams
Riley Owen
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 75% fundamentals and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Ben McAdams | 62.70% |
| Riley Owen | 21.10% |
| Other Option | 8.20% |
| Jesse West | 4.70% |
| Elias Montgomery | 3.30% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Riley Owen | $132,533 | $122,965 | - | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
 Ben McAdams | $2,262,255 | $1,977,908 | $2,713,377 | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
