Forecasted Win Probability
Alex Mealer
Leticia Gutierrez
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 75% fundamentals and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Alex Mealer | 45.00% |
| Leticia Gutierrez | 39.00% |
| Other Option | 16.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Leticia Gutierrez | $55,358 | $36,700 | - | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
 Alex Mealer | $2,080,514 | $1,718,474 | $4,847,974 | $362,126 | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
