Forecasted Win Probability
ForecastLast updated Oct 13, 1:52 PM
Carlos De La Cruz
Johnny Garcia
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 73% fundamentals, 2% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Carlos De La Cruz | 45.00% |
| Johnny Garcia | 44.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Johnny Garcia | $931,699 | $608,591 | $2,606,916 | $113,924 | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
 Carlos De La Cruz | $1,048,751 | $776,362 | $2,351,285 | $12,285 | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
