Forecasted Win Probability
Vicente Gonzalez*
Eric Flores
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 73% fundamentals, 2% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Vicente Gonzalez | 45.00% |
| Eric Flores | 42.00% |
| Other Option | 8.00% |
| Eddie Espinoza | 3.00% |
| Chris Royal | 2.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Eric Flores | 44.00% |
| Vicente Gonzalez | 41.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Eric Flores | $2,874,990 | $2,188,633 | $659,724 | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
 Vicente Gonzalez | $3,773,915 | $1,523,563 | $696 | $55,450 | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
