Forecasted Win Probability
Henry Cuellar*
Tano Tijerina
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 73% fundamentals, 2% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Henry Cuellar | 45.00% |
| Tano Tijerina | 34.00% |
| Other Option | 15.00% |
| Marlon Duran | 6.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Tano Tijerina | 46.00% |
| Henry Cuellar | 38.00% |
| Other Option | 16.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tano Tijerina | $1,399,881 | $631,693 | - | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
 Henry Cuellar | $2,231,952 | $1,150,307 | $10,569 | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
