Forecasted Win Probability
Steve Toth
Shaun Finnie
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 73% fundamentals, 2% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Steve Toth | 46.00% |
| Shaun Finnie | 37.00% |
| Other Option | 16.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Shaun Finnie | $2,729,677 | $1,260,476 | - | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
 Steve Toth | $824,450 | $671,515 | $526,125 | $1,842,767 | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
