Forecasted Win Probability
ForecastLast updated Oct 16, 2:02 PM
Monica De La Cruz*
Bobby Pulido
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 66% fundamentals, 9% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Bobby Pulido | 54.00% |
| Monica De La Cruz | 41.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Bobby Pulido | 50.00% |
| Monica De La Cruz | 45.00% |
| Other Option | 5.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Bobby Pulido | 51.00% |
| Monica De La Cruz | 45.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Monica De La Cruz | $6,551,097 | $6,362,072 | - | $215,000 | OCTOBER QUARTERLY | 9/30/2026 |
 Bobby Pulido | $2,960,462 | $1,804,526 | $1,223,097 | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
