Forecasted Win Probability
Chris Gober
Caitlin Rourk
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 73% fundamentals, 2% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Chris Gober | 48.00% |
| Caitlin Rourk | 41.00% |
| Other Option | 11.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Caitlin Rourk | $363,959 | $271,819 | - | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
 Chris Gober | $2,559,185 | $2,439,558 | $1,582,302 | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
