Forecasted Win Probability
Bill Hagerty*
Marquita Bradshaw
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 75% fundamentals and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Bill Hagerty | 58.00% |
| Marquita Bradshaw | 33.00% |
| Generic Independent | 5.00% |
| Other Option | 4.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Bill Hagerty | $17,035,411 | $11,805,330 | $1,814,644 | - | OCTOBER QUARTERLY | 9/30/2026 |
 Marquita Bradshaw | $41,985 | $40,942 | - | - | PRE-PRIMARY | 7/17/2026 |
