Forecasted Win Probability
Brent Taylor
Justin Pearson
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 75% fundamentals and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Brent Taylor | 48.00% |
| Justin Pearson | 44.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Justin Pearson | $2,344,947 | $1,500,214 | $35,721 | - | PRE-PRIMARY | 7/17/2026 |
 Brent Taylor | $1,549,482 | $1,132,104 | $473,095 | - | PRE-PRIMARY | 7/17/2026 |
