Forecasted Win Probability
Mike Rounds*
Brian Bengs
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 53% fundamentals, 22% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
If the election for South Dakota US Senate were held today, who would voters choose?
Candidate | Average | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|
 | – | ||
 | – | ||
| Rounds | |||
 | |||
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Rounds | $4,513,920 | $3,459,778 | $565,848 | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| Brian Bengs | $782,050 | $730,644 | - | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
