Forecasted Win Probability
Marty Jackley
Nicole Gronli
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 73% fundamentals, 2% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Marty Jackley | 47.00% |
| Nicole Gronli | 43.00% |
| Other Option | 8.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Nicole Gronli | $261,764 | $150,786 | - | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
 Marty Jackley | $1,438,706 | $375,981 | $149,680 | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
