Forecasted Win Probability
ForecastLast updated Sep 18, 2:40 PM
Jenny Honeycutt
Nancy Lacore
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 70% fundamentals, 5% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Jenny Honeycutt | 41.00% |
| Nancy Lacore | 40.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Jenny Honeycutt | 43.00% |
| Nancy Lacore | 41.00% |
| Bill Reeside | 5.00% |
| Margo Ellis | 2.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Mark Smith | 39.00% |
| Mac Deford | 36.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Nancy Lacore | $2,279,585 | $1,867,565 | $708,736 | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| Nancy Lacore | $1,633,139 | $1,353,670 | $312,811 | - | PRE-RUN-OFF | 6/3/2026 |
 Jenny Honeycutt | $556,418 | $477,885 | $999,165 | $50,198 | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| Jenny Honeycutt | $383,231 | $335,150 | $214,220 | - | PRE-RUN-OFF | 6/3/2026 |
