Forecasted Win Probability
ForecastLast updated Oct 13, 1:52 PM
Jenny Honeycutt
Nancy Lacore
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 68% fundamentals, 7% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Nancy Lacore | 48.00% |
| Jenny Honeycutt | 45.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Jenny Honeycutt | 46.00% |
| Nancy Lacore | 40.00% |
| Other Option | 9.00% |
| Bill Reeside | 4.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Jenny Honeycutt | 41.00% |
| Nancy Lacore | 40.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jenny Honeycutt | $556,418 | $477,885 | $999,165 | $50,198 | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
 Nancy Lacore | $2,279,585 | $1,867,565 | $708,736 | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
