Forecasted Win Probability
Gabriel Amo*
Kellie Keenan
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 75% fundamentals and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Gabriel Amo | 53.93% |
| Kellie Keenan | 25.87% |
| Other Option | 14.05% |
| Pedro de Souza | 6.14% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Gabriel Amo | $1,725,081 | $808,701 | - | - | PRE-PRIMARY | 8/20/2026 |
 Kellie Keenan | $12,771 | $10,439 | - | - | PRE-PRIMARY | 8/20/2026 |
