Forecasted Win Probability
ForecastLast updated Oct 13, 1:52 PM
Paige Cognetti
Robert Bresnahan*
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 68% fundamentals, 7% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Paige Cognetti | 47.00% |
| Robert Bresnahan | 45.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Paige Cognetti | 46.00% |
| Robert Bresnahan | 45.00% |
| Other Option | 9.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Paige Cognetti | 45.00% |
| Robert Bresnahan | 43.00% |
| Other Option | 13.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Paige Cognetti | $4,609,589 | $1,202,879 | $128,815 | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
 Robert Bresnahan | $5,234,586 | $2,679,690 | - | $622,041 | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
