Janelle Stelson
Scott Perry*
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 59% fundamentals, 16% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Janelle Stelson | 47.64% |
| Scott Perry | 45.20% |
| Other Option | 7.16% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Scott Perry | 48.00% |
| Janelle Stelson | 46.00% |
| Other Option | 6.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Janelle Stelson | 49.00% |
| Scott Perry | 46.00% |
| Other Option | 5.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Janelle Stelson | $9,234,260 | $7,180,191 | $186,490 | $2,380,211 | PRE-GENERAL | 10/14/2026 |
 Scott Perry | $6,791,519 | $5,849,869 | $1,005,461 | $864,789 | PRE-GENERAL | 10/14/2026 |
