Forecasted Win Probability
Janelle Stelson
Scott Perry*
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 66% fundamentals, 9% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Janelle Stelson | 46.00% |
| Scott Perry | 42.00% |
| Other Option | 12.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Janelle Stelson | 51.00% |
| Scott Perry | 45.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Generic Democrat | 49.00% |
| Scott Perry | 42.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Janelle Stelson | $8,689,755 | $6,187,777 | $106,771 | $15,496 | OCTOBER QUARTERLY | 9/30/2026 |
 Scott Perry | $5,194,925 | $2,430,869 | $118,725 | $57,677 | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
