ForecastLast updated Nov 3, 4:45 PM
Brian Fitzpatrick*
Bob Harvie
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 57% fundamentals, 18% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Brian Fitzpatrick | 46.10% |
| Bob Harvie | 45.96% |
| Other Option | 7.94% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Bob Harvie | 47.00% |
| Brian Fitzpatrick | 42.00% |
| Other Option | 11.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Brian Fitzpatrick | 46.00% |
| Bob Harvie | 46.00% |
| Other Option | 8.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Bob Harvie | $3,167,942 | $2,758,530 | $77,047 | $10,632 | PRE-GENERAL | 10/14/2026 |
 Brian Fitzpatrick | $8,021,376 | $11,734,809 | $443 | $504,851 | PRE-GENERAL | 10/14/2026 |
