Forecasted Win Probability
ForecastLast updated Oct 13, 1:52 PM
Brian Fitzpatrick*
Bob Harvie
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 75% fundamentals and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Brian Fitzpatrick | 46.00% |
| Bob Harvie | 46.00% |
| Other Option | 8.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Brian Fitzpatrick | 49.00% |
| Bob Harvie | 40.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Brian Fitzpatrick | 49.00% |
| Bob Harvie | 48.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Brian Fitzpatrick | $6,734,931 | $4,801,927 | - | $456 | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
 Bob Harvie | $2,007,499 | $1,212,578 | $17,806 | $10,609 | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
