Forecasted Win Probability
Kevin Hern
N'Kiyla Thomas
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 75% fundamentals and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Kevin Hern | 48.00% |
| Jim Priest | 27.00% |
| Other Option | 14.00% |
| Ron Meinhardt | 5.00% |
| Curtis Stinnett | 3.00% |
| Sevier White | 2.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 N'Kiyla Thomas | $106,995 | $80,710 | - | - | OCTOBER QUARTERLY | 9/30/2026 |
 Kevin Hern | $10,765,916 | $7,998,421 | $2,421,160 | - | OCTOBER QUARTERLY | 9/30/2026 |
