Forecasted Win Probability
Stephanie Bice*
Jena Nelson
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 75% fundamentals and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Stephanie Bice | 48.00% |
| Jena Nelson | 43.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jena Nelson | $738,967 | $655,360 | - | - | OCTOBER QUARTERLY | 9/30/2026 |
 Stephanie Bice | $1,943,507 | $1,007,476 | - | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
